Will WA’s coal exit be a green dream or lights out?

All sides of WA politics agree coal-fired power will end and be replaced mainly by onshore wind, but there are stark differences on whether the lights will stay on in the meantime.

For Liberal energy spokesman Steve Thomas, 2027 is shaping up to be a crisis year for the power system in south west WA.

“In two years’ time, there's not enough new renewables in the system, there's not enough distribution, there's not enough storage, and the system is on the verge of collapse,” he said.

“That is my prediction.”

The Labor government plans to close state-owned Synergy’s Collie power station in October 2027, taking 340 megawatts of generation capacity out of the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) that powers WA from Kalbarri in the north, down to Albany and east to Kalgoorlie.

Before then, many market observers expect the 434-megawatt privately-owned Bluewaters power station will have closed. 

Its fuel supplier Griffin Coal is only surviving with $220 million of  state government backing that ends in mid-2026. 

Synergy, a main customer, will not renew its contract that expires in 2025 and Water Corporation, another big source of revenue, plans to switch to renewable power in coming years.

“You basically destroy the business case of Bluewaters,” Thomas told a state election energy and climate forum on Tuesday night  

The government is in large part relying on upgrading the transmission system to the Mid West to connect more wind generation to the system.

However, the $270 million first stage of the Clean Energy Link is scheduled to be completed in mid-2027, just months before the Collie power station closes down, leaving little room for error.

Labor energy minister Reece Whitby said the government would keep Bluewaters running “until we make a careful and strategic exit.”

“It is a tricky dance, getting out of coal, getting out of Collie, the timing has to be right, it's not a sustainable resource.”

Whitby noted that during recent summer demand peaks there was a significant buffer of available generation capacity courtesy of the reserve capacity mechanism that pays generators to be available, not just for the electricity they produce. 

He said about 250 megawatts of rooftop solar capacity is also added each year, and recent investments in grid-scale batteries by the state and private entities will allow greater use of that resource.

The Liberals plan to extend the life of the coal-fired power plants until 300 megawatts of new gas generation capacity can be built. Thomas did not provide any costings. 

In 2022, when the Labor government announced its plan to close down Synergy’s two coal-fired power stations, then Premier Mark McGowan said business as usual would have pushed an average household’s power bill up by as much as $3000 a year. 

Time will tell if WA can exit coal this decade, or be needed for another five years as Thomas predicts.

Gas stays – but how much and for how long?

There was no debate that gas is crucial, including from Greens leader Brad Pettitt.

“The cheap shot is to say the Greens want to turn gas off overnight – no one is saying that,” he said.

“What we're saying is that the more wind, solar and battery storage you have the less gas you need.”

Pettitt said modelling by Sustainable Energy Now, which hosted the policy forum, showed the “sweet spot” for lowest prices was a grid with about 87 per cent renewable energy.   

Currently the Greens’ sole member of parliament, Pettitt expects in the future gas will be called on only on rare occasions when there are multiple days of low wind and cloud.

Pettitt worries that any new gas-fired power stations, such as those planned by the Liberals, will allow the climate-polluting fuel to remain in the system for longer.

 Surprising some in the audience, Whitby, who frequently repeats the gas export industry’s talking points, agreed that “gas should and does have a use by date.”

“It will be around for a long time and eventually be a bespoke source for some industry processes,” he said.

WA power cleaner as coal fails and batteries charge in

The south-west grid shattered numerous records in late 2024 as new batteries and more rooftop solar replaced unavailable coal-fired power.

Boiling ColdPeter Milne

Both major parties shrugged off the idea of interim emissions reductions targets, leading to their common aim of net zero emissions by 2050, with Thomas calling them a distraction.

Former Greens senator Jo Valentine asked Whitby how he reconciled net-zero emission by 2050 with his recent approval for Woodside’s North West Shelf gas export plant to operate until 2070.

The energy and environment minister defended the role of gas but did not address how that argument was valid in a world with net-zero emissions, but thanked Valentine for the question.

“Joe, I love your passion, and I voted for you - the only time I didn't vote for Labor Party - when you campaigned for Nuclear Disarmament,” he said.

Valentine was scathing about WA Labor’s overall green credentials.

“I don’t know how you can sit there and say the EPA is a strong protector of our environment, it has been emasculated during the course of this government,” she said.